In the beginning of November 2009, I wrote the post “Descending into the world’s deepest shaft in the permafrost zone.” In a few days after I received a message with a lot of questions from a Hungarian scientists Adam Soereg.
He wrote “Data from Yakutsk is extremely important, because this is the longest dataset in the Eastern Siberian region, longer than any series in the United States. Yakutsk shows an abnormally high rate of warming since the early 19th century, but what if the official values used by large agencies between 1829 and 1854 are 1.9°c lower than reality?”
Here is the whole text of his message:
I’ve recently read your post about the world’s deepest vertical shaft in permafrost. When I discovered that it was built by Fyodor Shergin, a merchant employed by a joint Russian-American company, I had a thought that I’ve seen this name somewhere. Later I found at home the copies of some old documents published by the Central Physical Observatory of Russia, which contained very old temperature measurements from Yakutsk.
I interested in climate research and especially in surface temperature records and calculating global temperature.
Data from Yakutsk is extremely important, because this is the longest dataset in the Eastern Siberian region, longer than any series in the United States.
Yakutsk shows an abnormally high rate of warming since the early 19th century, but what if the official values used by large agencies between 1829 and 1854 are 1.9°c lower than reality?
I possess all data since the first observations began in Yakutsk in 1829, and it is absolutely sure that the official values were calculated each year from Neverov’s data. I have three different sets: the official record used by lots of institutions, and the original measurements taken by Aleksandr Neverov and Fyodor Shergin. To easily understand my problem, I am going to show you an example:
Monthly averages in Yakutsk from various sources and difference between measurements taken by Alexsandr Neverov and Fyodor Shergin (°c):
Month/yr Official Neverov Shergin Diff.
Aug 1837 13.1 11.9 14.1 2.2
Sep 1837 4.3 3.5 5.0 1.5
Oct 1837 -10.9 -10.8 -10.6 0.2
Nov 1837 -33.5 -31.9 -31.1 0.8
Dec 1837 -36.9 -34.9 -32.8 2.1
Jan 1838 -49.1 -46.5 -44.1 2.4
Feb 1838 -38.8 -36.9 -34.9 2.0
Mar 1838 -26.1 -24.9 -23.1 1.8
Apr 1838 -7.4 -7.4 -6.1 1.3
May 1838 2.7 2.3 3.4 1.1
Jun 1838 15.8 14.4 16.3 1.9
Jul 1838 21.8 19.9 21.3 1.4Annual -12.1 -11.8 -10.2
As you can see, there are extremely high differences in case of the 3 temperature series. The official values are the lowest, with the largest negative bias in January. Shergin observed a monthly mean of -44.1 degC, Neverov’s data shows a lower mean (-46.5°c) and the official ones decreased Neverov’s values by 2.6°c in every January between 1829 and 1854. But how the hell they “homogenized” his measurements when Yakutsk was the only observing site in entire Yakutia and Eastern Siberia?? If you adjust the early data downwards, you will get an artificial warming trend (to be honest, this is exactly what some global warming scientists would like to achieve).
I would like to ask for information in case of three different problems:
1. I think that Mr. Shergin measured the air temperature in his own property, next to his famous permafrost shaft described in your post. Is there any chance to give its exact location in Google Maps and find some information how the temperature readings were taken?
2. I do not know at the moment which series are correct, but the official ones are suspiciously low. However, there could be an another source of information to estimate the real temperatures in the 19th century. Mr. Shergin recorded the exact time of freeze-up and brake-up on Lena river. In 1837/38 winter season, it was 27 October 1837 and 25-27 April 1838, respectively. If somebody in Yakutsk have a diary with dates we can compare it with the modern temperature measurements (and check the accuracy of the 3 series).
3. Where is the contemporary location of the local weather station in your city?
I would highly appreciate your help in this topic.
Adam Soereg
Budapest, Hungary
I forwarded the message to Valentin Spektor, expert of Yakutsk Permafrost Institute. He replied and supplied a pretty good amount of info:
1) At present i have one scientific source for that time. This is the book by Karl M.Baer. Materials for study of unmelted soil frost in Siberia. Yakutsk: Permafrost Institute SB RAS Press, 2000. -160 p. It is published in Russian for the first time. The original in German was kept as a manuscript in the arkhives of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The materials were obtained by 1842 for A.F. Middendorf.
2) According to the application 19 by Dr. Adolf Erman, Erman had measured air temperatures in Yakutsk in 1828 by spirit thermometer in Reaumur degrees (1 °R = 0,8 °С)
Here is the Erman’s table i translated from this application:Month
(old style) Air temperature in Yakutsk (degrees Reaumur)
8 am 2 pm month 8 am 2pmJanuary -31.0 -29.0 July +14.2 +20.7
Feb. -27.1 -22.3 Aug +8.4 +14.4
March -17.6 -7.5 Sept. -2.5 +3.0
Apr. -5.4 +2.3 Oct. -12.5 +9.1
May +5.3 +10.7 Nov. -25.4 -2.3
June +12.4 +12.4 Dec. -35.5 -33.8Here is the reference:
Adolf Erman Bergchaus Annalen der Erdstaaten und Völkerkude.1882, Bd.V,S.541-54See also: Erman’s Reise um die Erde. Erste Abteilung historischer Bericht, B.II (1838), S.250
3) Then, in the application 21, von Helmersen about the well in Yakutsk writes that Shergin made measurements of temperature in the well by a Reaumur thermometer, and sometimes measured temperature of the outside air
Bulletin scientifique de l’Academie de S.Petersbourg, vol III, p.193.
4) We can?t tell in which exact time of the day Shergin made his measurements and on which height above the surface.
5) We would be obliged if you send the old documents published by the Central Physical Observatory of Russia you mentioned.
Cheers,
Valentin Spektor.
In my turn I sent Adam coordinates on Google Maps:
The shaft is that small grey roof in the front of the G-like brown roof.
Similar Posts:
- Descending into the world’s deepest shaft in the permafrost zone
- Yakutsk Permafrost Institute: Why did climate changes not affect permafrost in Yakutia?
- Press Release: Andrey I’s descent into the world’s deepest well
- The Limits of Oymyakon
- How to contact a melting permafrost expert in Yakutsk?
